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Finish Time Delta

What this is (and isn't): this holds the actual track fixed — for every wind angle/speed combination actually sailed, it asks "what if this exact segment had been sailed at the polar's speed instead of the boat's," then sums up. It does not model routing changes a genuinely faster or slower boat would have made — reaching a layline sooner, avoiding a header, riding a shift longer, timing a current gate differently. Different boatspeed in reality would very likely have meant a different route, and therefore different wind angles and conditions than what got sailed here. Treat this as "how the actual angles/speeds compared to target," not a true alternate-history finish time.

Newport to Ensenada 2017 vs. MM reference

Actual (analyzed)
15h 16m 30s
99.5% of race time covered
Theoretical (mm)
12h 39m 01s
same angles/speeds distribution, polar's BSP
Delta
-2h 37m 28s
-17.2% of actual time · slower than the polar overall

By True Wind Speed

TWSActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
4 kt no data
6 kt 1h 45m 05s 1h 29m 09s -15m 55s +10.1%
7 kt 1h 28m 30s 1h 13m 49s -14m 40s +9.3%
8 kt 1h 06m 25s 54m 34s -11m 50s +7.5%
9 kt 50m 35s 43m 17s -7m 17s +4.6%
10 kt 1h 22m 25s 1h 13m 24s -9m 00s +5.7%
12 kt 2h 05m 30s 1h 49m 42s -15m 47s +10.0%
14 kt 2h 05m 40s 1h 44m 31s -21m 08s +13.4%
16 kt 2h 35m 30s 2h 03m 26s -32m 03s +20.4%
20 kt 1h 47m 10s 1h 19m 39s -27m 30s +17.5%
25 kt 9m 40s 7m 25s -2m 14s +1.4%
30 kt no data

By True Wind Angle

TWAActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
45° 19m 05s 13m 05s -5m 59s +3.8%
52° 32m 30s 23m 59s -8m 30s +5.4%
60° 22m 45s 15m 01s -7m 43s +4.9%
70° 6m 15s 3m 35s -2m 39s +1.7%
75° 2m 00s 1m 07s -0m 52s +0.6%
80° 2m 00s 0m 47s -1m 12s +0.8%
90° 6m 20s 2m 46s -3m 33s +2.3%
100° 8m 00s 4m 30s -3m 29s +2.2%
110° 17m 55s 10m 29s -7m 25s +4.7%
120° 1h 49m 35s 1h 19m 46s -29m 48s +18.9%
130° 3h 47m 40s 3h 04m 58s -42m 41s +27.1%
135° 3h 02m 45s 2h 39m 36s -23m 08s +14.7%
140° 3h 02m 05s 2h 44m 07s -17m 57s +11.4%
150° 1h 19m 00s 1h 16m 49s -2m 10s +1.4%
160° 18m 35s 18m 20s -0m 14s +0.2%