← Polars · Boatspeed Table

Finish Time Delta

What this is (and isn't): this holds the actual track fixed — for every wind angle/speed combination actually sailed, it asks "what if this exact segment had been sailed at the polar's speed instead of the boat's," then sums up. It does not model routing changes a genuinely faster or slower boat would have made — reaching a layline sooner, avoiding a header, riding a shift longer, timing a current gate differently. Different boatspeed in reality would very likely have meant a different route, and therefore different wind angles and conditions than what got sailed here. Treat this as "how the actual angles/speeds compared to target," not a true alternate-history finish time.

Santa Barbara to King Harbor 2016 vs. MM reference

Actual (analyzed)
7h 31m 55s
99.1% of race time covered
Theoretical (mm)
6h 31m 29s
same angles/speeds distribution, polar's BSP
Delta
-1h 00m 25s
-13.4% of actual time · slower than the polar overall

By True Wind Speed

TWSActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
4 kt no data
6 kt 5m 05s 4m 38s -0m 26s +0.7%
7 kt 7m 30s 4m 52s -2m 37s +4.3%
8 kt 9m 20s 6m 32s -2m 47s +4.6%
9 kt 12m 20s 12m 15s -0m 04s +0.1%
10 kt 30m 50s 32m 05s +1m 15s -2.1%
12 kt 1h 22m 25s 1h 13m 49s -8m 35s +14.2%
14 kt 2h 18m 20s 1h 52m 50s -25m 29s +42.2%
16 kt 2h 04m 20s 1h 49m 22s -14m 57s +24.8%
20 kt 41m 05s 34m 33s -6m 31s +10.8%
25 kt 0m 40s 0m 30s -0m 09s +0.3%
30 kt no data

By True Wind Angle

TWAActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
45° no data
52° no data
60° no data
70° 2m 10s 0m 47s -1m 22s +2.3%
75° 1m 55s 0m 43s -1m 11s +2.0%
80° 3m 10s 1m 13s -1m 56s +3.2%
90° 1m 50s 0m 58s -0m 51s +1.4%
100° 19m 55s 14m 22s -5m 32s +9.2%
110° 47m 50s 34m 59s -12m 50s +21.2%
120° 45m 45s 34m 58s -10m 46s +17.8%
130° 36m 20s 30m 40s -5m 39s +9.4%
135° 1h 15m 20s 1h 06m 25s -8m 54s +14.7%
140° 2h 23m 00s 2h 08m 53s -14m 06s +23.3%
150° 1h 08m 45s 1h 10m 37s +1m 52s -3.1%
160° 5m 55s 6m 48s +0m 53s -1.5%