← Polars · Boatspeed Table

Finish Time Delta

What this is (and isn't): this holds the actual track fixed — for every wind angle/speed combination actually sailed, it asks "what if this exact segment had been sailed at the polar's speed instead of the boat's," then sums up. It does not model routing changes a genuinely faster or slower boat would have made — reaching a layline sooner, avoiding a header, riding a shift longer, timing a current gate differently. Different boatspeed in reality would very likely have meant a different route, and therefore different wind angles and conditions than what got sailed here. Treat this as "how the actual angles/speeds compared to target," not a true alternate-history finish time.

Newport to Ensenada 2021 vs. MM reference

Actual (analyzed)
13h 22m 10s
99.7% of race time covered
Theoretical (mm)
11h 22m 36s
same angles/speeds distribution, polar's BSP
Delta
-1h 59m 33s
-14.9% of actual time · slower than the polar overall

By True Wind Speed

TWSActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
4 kt no data
6 kt 23m 05s 17m 48s -5m 16s +4.4%
7 kt 54m 25s 50m 33s -3m 51s +3.2%
8 kt 1h 36m 30s 1h 29m 42s -6m 47s +5.7%
9 kt 1h 57m 25s 1h 46m 44s -10m 40s +8.9%
10 kt 3h 03m 25s 2h 43m 43s -19m 41s +16.5%
12 kt 3h 57m 35s 3h 09m 40s -47m 54s +40.1%
14 kt 1h 21m 05s 58m 29s -22m 35s +18.9%
16 kt 8m 40s 5m 55s -2m 44s +2.3%
20 kt no data
25 kt no data
30 kt no data

By True Wind Angle

TWAActualTheoreticalDelta% of total delta
45° 1m 30s 0m 53s -0m 36s +0.5%
52° 0m 25s 0m 22s -0m 02s +0.0%
60° 3m 15s 3m 09s -0m 05s +0.1%
70° 24m 00s 24m 37s +0m 37s -0.5%
75° 54m 15s 55m 04s +0m 49s -0.7%
80° 2h 03m 30s 2h 03m 12s -0m 17s +0.2%
90° 1h 40m 35s 1h 24m 04s -16m 30s +13.8%
100° 37m 25s 28m 39s -8m 45s +7.3%
110° 55m 15s 41m 12s -14m 02s +11.7%
120° 4h 06m 45s 3h 14m 12s -52m 32s +43.9%
130° 2h 04m 10s 1h 43m 34s -20m 35s +17.2%
135° 18m 35s 14m 24s -4m 10s +3.5%
140° 10m 55s 7m 44s -3m 10s +2.7%
150° 1m 35s 1m 24s -0m 10s +0.1%
160° no data